Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Virginia 100.0%   1   29 - 3 16 - 2 29 - 3 16 - 2 +23.0      +12.7 3 +10.3 6 54.4 353 +25.5 1 +26.6 1
3 Duke 100.0%   1   29 - 5 14 - 4 29 - 5 14 - 4 +22.6      +11.4 7 +11.1 5 79.2 18 +24.0 2 +21.5 3
4 North Carolina 100.0%   1   27 - 6 16 - 2 27 - 6 16 - 2 +21.6      +11.9 5 +9.7 9 84.7 4 +21.7 3 +25.4 2
12 Virginia Tech 100.0%   4   24 - 8 12 - 6 24 - 8 12 - 6 +16.4      +9.6 12 +6.8 27 61.3 335 +16.6 15 +16.7 5
13 Florida St. 100.0%   3   27 - 7 13 - 5 27 - 7 13 - 5 +16.3      +6.4 32 +9.9 8 70.6 129 +19.1 9 +17.1 4
19 Louisville 99.7%   7   20 - 13 10 - 8 20 - 13 10 - 8 +14.9      +6.4 30 +8.4 17 68.1 197 +13.7 27 +13.8 6
29 Clemson 40.8%   19 - 13 9 - 9 19 - 13 9 - 9 +12.8      +3.3 86 +9.5 10 65.9 256 +10.8 43 +11.6 8
31 North Carolina St. 42.0%   22 - 11 9 - 9 22 - 11 9 - 9 +12.4      +6.6 29 +5.8 38 77.4 27 +13.0 30 +10.9 9
33 Syracuse 83.8%   10   20 - 13 10 - 8 20 - 13 10 - 8 +11.7      +4.7 56 +7.1 23 65.5 272 +11.2 37 +13.4 7
66 Miami (FL) 0.0%   14 - 18 5 - 13 14 - 18 5 - 13 +7.7      +4.6 58 +3.1 91 67.1 223 +4.8 106 +5.1 12
77 Notre Dame 0.0%   14 - 19 3 - 15 14 - 19 3 - 15 +6.2      +3.2 89 +3.0 95 63.8 312 +4.3 111 +0.8 15
93 Pittsburgh 0.0%   14 - 19 3 - 15 14 - 19 3 - 15 +5.3      +1.3 140 +4.1 70 68.0 204 +3.8 117 +2.6 14
100 Georgia Tech 0.0%   14 - 18 6 - 12 14 - 18 6 - 12 +4.8      -0.7 197 +5.6 44 67.4 216 +4.9 104 +7.7 10
106 Boston College 0.0%   14 - 17 5 - 13 14 - 17 5 - 13 +4.6      +2.9 98 +1.7 124 68.1 200 +4.7 108 +5.8 11
153 Wake Forest 0.0%   11 - 20 4 - 14 11 - 20 4 - 14 +0.9      +0.6 160 +0.3 159 68.4 186 +1.4 145 +4.5 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Virginia 1.0 100.0
Duke 3.0 100.0
North Carolina 1.0 100.0
Virginia Tech 5.0 100.0
Florida St. 4.0 100.0
Louisville 6.0 100.0
Clemson 8.0 100.0
North Carolina St. 8.0 100.0
Syracuse 6.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 11.0 100.0
Notre Dame 14.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 14.0 100.0
Georgia Tech 10.0 100.0
Boston College 11.0 100.0
Wake Forest 13.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia 16 - 2 100.0
Duke 14 - 4 100.0
North Carolina 16 - 2 100.0
Virginia Tech 12 - 6 100.0
Florida St. 13 - 5 100.0
Louisville 10 - 8 100.0
Clemson 9 - 9 100.0
North Carolina St. 9 - 9 100.0
Syracuse 10 - 8 100.0
Miami (FL) 5 - 13 100.0
Notre Dame 3 - 15 100.0
Pittsburgh 3 - 15 100.0
Georgia Tech 6 - 12 100.0
Boston College 5 - 13 100.0
Wake Forest 4 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia 100.0% 100.0
Duke
North Carolina 100.0% 100.0
Virginia Tech
Florida St.
Louisville
Clemson
North Carolina St.
Syracuse
Miami (FL)
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Georgia Tech
Boston College
Wake Forest


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1   85.2 14.6 0.2 100.0%
Duke 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1   76.3 23.2 0.5
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1   65.8 32.5 1.7 0.0 100.0%
Virginia Tech 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.0 0.2 6.1 32.2 39.9 18.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Florida St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   1.2 10.1 45.8 38.8 4.1 0.1 100.0%
Louisville 99.7% 0.0% 99.7% 7   0.0 0.6 5.4 16.8 64.4 11.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.7%
Clemson 40.8% 0.0% 40.8% 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 10.8 28.0 0.6 0.0 59.2 40.8%
North Carolina St. 42.0% 0.0% 42.0% 0.1 0.3 1.5 13.7 26.2 0.2 58.0 42.0%
Syracuse 83.8% 0.0% 83.8% 10   0.0 2.9 16.5 23.7 25.8 13.7 1.1 16.2 83.8%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.3% 87.3% 68.1% 46.3% 28.7% 16.7%
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.2% 86.1% 66.1% 43.3% 25.8% 14.8%
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.8% 83.1% 60.8% 37.4% 20.9% 10.8%
Virginia Tech 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 80.7% 46.3% 16.8% 7.3% 2.5% 0.8%
Florida St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 87.9% 54.7% 21.8% 8.6% 3.1% 1.1%
Louisville 99.7% 0.0% 99.7% 67.1% 22.9% 10.2% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2%
Clemson 40.8% 37.7% 27.4% 11.7% 4.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 42.0% 37.8% 27.8% 11.7% 4.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Syracuse 83.8% 5.8% 81.4% 39.3% 8.2% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.7 0.0 4.5 37.2 45.7 12.5
1st Round 100.0% 7.4 0.0 8.7 50.1 37.4 3.8
2nd Round 100.0% 6.0 0.0 0.4 5.1 24.7 42.2 23.6 3.9 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 4.0 0.0 0.7 6.1 24.0 38.7 24.7 5.2 0.5 0.0
Elite Eight 98.5% 2.5 1.5 12.5 35.0 38.3 11.6 1.1 0.0
Final Four 88.0% 1.5 12.0 39.6 37.6 10.3 0.4
Final Game 68.1% 0.8 31.9 53.7 14.4
Champion 44.5% 0.4 55.5 44.5